As the 2024 elections approach, many residents and investors in the Raleigh-Durham region and surrounding areas are left wondering: How will election results impact our housing market? The Triangle is one of the fastest-growing areas in the country, and local, state, and national policy changes could play a pivotal role in shaping future real estate trends. From economic policy shifts to local zoning reforms, let’s explore how potential political changes might influence the housing market.
At the national level, government decisions on the economy can make or break housing markets. Post-election shifts in economic policies—particularly regarding interest rates, taxes, and spending—will influence affordability and market behavior.
Mortgage Interest Rates: The outcome of the 2024 elections could affect how the Federal Reserve adjusts interest rates. Rising mortgage rates would directly impact home affordability, putting pressure on potential buyers across the Triangle. With many first-time buyers entering the market, even small changes could determine whether they can secure financing.
Tax Reforms: Raleigh-Durham’s real estate market is already benefiting from people moving in from high-tax states. If the next administration implements tax cuts or favorable property tax incentives, demand could increase further. However, any tightening of tax deductions or increases in capital gains taxes might slow down investor interest, particularly in popular suburbs like Cary and Apex.
Consumer Confidence: Economic stability—or instability—after the election will directly influence buyer confidence. If the new administration brings economic growth and lower inflation, we could see a surge in home sales across the region. However, uncertainty could cause potential buyers and sellers to delay big decisions, slowing market momentum.
While federal elections grab national attention, state-level changes will have a direct impact on North Carolina’s housing market. Raleigh-Durham, in particular, faces challenges around housing affordability and infrastructure that could either be alleviated or worsened depending on the outcomes of state elections.
Affordable Housing Push: Election results could shape housing policy in favor of increasing affordable housing initiatives. In Raleigh and Durham, a growing population has made housing more expensive. Pro-housing policies that incentivize developers to build more affordable homes could help alleviate these pressures, especially for first-time buyers and low- to middle-income families.
Zoning Laws and High-Density Housing: Zoning reforms are a hot topic, with many areas in the Triangle resisting high-density housing developments. However, if state or local election results favor politicians pushing for zoning flexibility, we could see more multi-family developments or higher-density housing projects in suburban areas like Holly Springs or Fuquay-Varina.
Infrastructure Investments: Raleigh-Durham’s infrastructure, particularly public transit and highway expansions, will be key to future housing development. If elected officials prioritize funding for infrastructure, it could open up new opportunities in outlying areas, making places like Knightdale or Wendell more attractive to homebuyers looking for affordability while staying connected to city centers.
In addition to national and state elections, local races in Raleigh, Durham, and neighboring towns could be just as important in determining housing trends. Decisions on development projects, land use, and urban planning will directly shape how neighborhoods evolve over the next decade.
Community Development and Housing Projects: Local officials who advocate for new development in underutilized areas could see their policies encourage more construction, leading to a greater supply of homes. This is critical in high-demand areas like Downtown Raleigh or North Durham, where urban growth and redevelopment could help balance supply and demand.
Balancing Growth with Local Needs: Many residents in the Triangle area are concerned about rapid growth, leading to debates over zoning laws and development approval. Local candidates that prioritize community interests over expansion may slow down the approval of housing projects, further tightening the market. Conversely, pro-growth officials could fast-track developments that help ease inventory shortages, particularly in rapidly expanding suburban areas.
Immigration and workforce policies, while seemingly removed from real estate, play an essential role in how housing markets operate. The 2024 elections could impact these policies, influencing Raleigh-Durham’s supply chain, construction workforce, and housing affordability.
Labor Market Impact on Housing Supply: Like much of the country, Raleigh-Durham faces labor shortages in the construction industry, which can slow down new housing developments. Post-election immigration policies that either restrict or promote immigrant labor will directly influence how quickly builders can deliver new homes and meet demand.
Growing Workforce and Home Demand: Raleigh-Durham’s booming economy—anchored by tech, healthcare, and research industries—has attracted workers from across the country. If post-election economic policies favor continued growth and job creation in these sectors, housing demand will remain strong. As professionals move to the area for work, competition for homes will intensify, especially in sought-after locations like Research Triangle Park and Chapel Hill.
Investors and institutional buyers play a significant role in Raleigh-Durham’s housing market, and election results could either encourage or discourage further investment. Real estate in the Triangle has already attracted significant interest from both domestic and international investors looking for strong returns in a fast-growing market.
Tax Policy for Real Estate Investors: Federal tax policies can either encourage or deter investment activity. If tax benefits for property ownership or investment remain strong, Raleigh-Durham could see continued interest from large institutional buyers. However, changes in capital gains taxes or restrictions on property depreciation benefits could slow investment, potentially easing competition for single-family homes in areas like Wake Forest or Morrisville.
Luxury Market Shifts: High-net-worth buyers, particularly those relocating from expensive states like California and New York, could be swayed by election outcomes. If taxes remain favorable in North Carolina, the region’s luxury market will continue to expand, especially in exclusive neighborhoods like North Hills or Southern Durham.
Election outcomes will have lasting effects on Raleigh-Durham’s housing market, shaping affordability, housing supply, and demand. To navigate this changing landscape, it’s essential to stay informed and adapt your real estate strategy.
If you’re considering buying, selling, or investing in the Raleigh-Durham area, I’d love to help you capitalize on market opportunities. Contact me today, and let’s work together to achieve your real estate goals in 2024 and beyond. - Scott